Prof. Dr. Jan Oliver Schwarz

Raum: A238
Lehrgebiet: Strategic Foresight and Trend Analysis


  • Strategic Foresight
  • Trends and weak singals
  • Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming
  • Design Thinking
  • Strategy and cultural products / Science-Fiction


Beruflicher Werdegang

  • seit WiSe 2021: Professor für Strategic Foresight and Trend Analysis an der THI
  • 2019 - 2021: Professor für Strategic Management and Leadership, ESB Business School, Universität Reutlingen
  • 2015- 2019: Professor für General Management, Hochschule Fresenius, München, Design Department
  • 2015 - 2016: Decision Strategies International, Inc., London & München, Associate Principal
  • 2010 - 2015: Allianz SE, München, Strategy Consultant



  • Universität der Künste Berlin, PhD, Management, Foresight
  • Stellenbosch Business School, MPhil, Futures Studies
  • Universität Witten/Herdecke, Dipl. Oec., Management




Schwarz, J. O. & Wach, B. (2022). “The Usage of Cultural Products in Design Thinking: an Assessment of an Underestimated Approach”. The Design Journal, 25 (1): 4-24.

Oriesek, D. F. & Schwarz, J. O. 2021. Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. London: Taylor & Francis.

Schwarz, J. O. (2021). “From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention:

A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol”. Futures & Foresight Science.

Schwarz, J. O. 2020. “Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming from an Open Strategy Perspective”. World Futures Review, 12(3): 291-303.

Eller, E., Hofmann, R. & Schwarz, J. O. 2020. “The Customer Foresight Territory”. Marketing Review St Gallen, 3, 888-895.

Schwarz, J. O., Rohrbeck, R. & Wach, B. 2020. “Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities”. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(1), 1-11.

Schwarz, J. O. 2019. “Strategy orientation in the fashion industry: Short- or long-term?”. Journal of Futures Studies, 24(1), 77-90.

Gordon, A. V., Rohrbeck, R. & Schwarz, J. O. 2019. “Escaping the ‘Faster Horses’ Trap: Bridging Strategic Foresight and Design-Based Innovation”. Technology Innovation Management Review, 9(8): 30-42.

Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C. & Rohrbeck, R. 2019. “Adding the competitive dimension to scenario planning: combining scenarios with business war gaming”. Futures, 133, 133-142.

Schwarz, J. O. 2015. ”The ‘Narrative Turn’ in developing foresight: Assessing how cultural products can assist organizations in detecting weak signals“. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 90, 510-513.

Schwarz, J. O., Kroehl, R. & von der Gracht, H. 2014. “Novels and novelty in innovation – Enacting weak signals by taking advantage of novels as specific frames of reference”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80, 66-73.

Rohrbeck, R. & Schwarz, J. O. 2013. “The Value Contribution of Strategic Foresight: Insights From an Empirical Study Among Large European Companies”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80(8), 1593–1606.

Schwarz, J. O. 2013. “Business Wargaming for Teaching Strategy Making”. Futures, 51, 59–66.

Schwarz, J. O. & Liebl, F. 2013. “Cultural Products and their Implications for Business Models: Why Science Fiction Needs Socio-Cultural Fiction”. Futures, 50, 66-73.

von Groddeck, V. & Schwarz, J. O. 2013. “Perceiving Megatrends as Empty Signifiers: A Discourse-Theoretical Interpretation of Trend Management”. Futures, 47, 28–37.

Schwarz, J. O. 2011. “Ex-Ante Strategy Evaluation: The Case for Business Wargaming”. Business Strategy Series, 12(3), 122-135.

Schwarz, J. O. 2011. Quellcode der Zukunft: Literatur in der Strategischen Frühaufklärung [Source code of the future: Literature in Strategic Foresight]. Berlin: Logos.

Liebl, F. & Schwarz, J. O. 2010. “Normality of the Future: Trend Diagnosis for Strategic Foresight”. Futures, 42(4), 313–327.

Schwarz, J. O. 2009. “Business Wargaming: Developing Foresight within a Strategic Simulation”. Technological Analysis and Strategic Management, 21(3), 291-305.

Schwarz, J. O. 2008. “Assessing the Future of Futures Studies in Management”. Futures, 40(3), 237-246.

Oriesek, D. F. & Schwarz, J. O. 2008. Business Wargaming: Securing Corporate Value. Aldershot: Gower Publishing.

Schwarz, J. O. 2007. “Assessing Future Disorders in Organizations: Implications for Diagnosing and Treating Schizophrenic, Depressed or Paranoid Organizations”. Foresight, 9(2), 15-26.

Schwarz, J. O. 2005. “Pitfalls in Implementing a Strategic Early Warning System“. Foresight, 7(4), 22-30.