Publications

Authors: Laura Bechthold, Laura Rosendahl Huber, Kimberly A. Eddleston

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2026.106582

Abstract:

Women remain underrepresented not only as founders but also as employees – or “joiners” – in young and small firms, limiting their exposure to entrepreneurial environments that often serve as critical pathways to venture creation. To address this gap, we investigate whether introducing female entrepreneur role models in educational settings can shape young women's entrepreneurial self-efficacy and early career choices. Drawing on role congruity theory and social cognitive career theory (SCCT), we conducted a field experiment involving over 430 university students and 98 early-stage entrepreneurs. Using a pre-test/post-test design and longitudinal tracking of early career choices, we explore the causal effects of exogenously assigned female role models on students' decisions to join a young or small firm. We find that exposure to social interactions with female entrepreneurs significantly boosts female students' entrepreneurial self-efficacy. More importantly, women who were paired with a female entrepreneur were over 10% more likely to join a young firm after graduation compared to those assigned to a male entrepreneur. Mediation analysis confirms that entrepreneurial self-efficacy is a key mechanism linking exposure to same-sex role models with women's decision to join a young firm. These findings highlight the potential of targeted role model interventions to reduce gender disparities in entrepreneurial entry pathways and expand the diversity of entrepreneurial ecosystems.

Authors: Gerhard Schönhofer, Pauli Komonen, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Laura Bechthold

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70030

Abstract:

Scenario reports, holding a long-standing tradition in foresight and futures studies, act as an essential document for organizations to prepare for possible, plausible, and alternative futures. Focusing on descriptions and representations of everyday life, we examined 29 future persona narratives from six publications—covering a wide field from public to private sector—through qualitative content analysis. Our guiding question is: How can anthropological perspectives such as cultural relativism or postcolonial discourses contribute to an in-depth, qualitative interpretation depictions of future everyday life? Acknowledging anthropology's colonial origins and its growing commitment to the interests of indigenous and other marginalized groups, we offer alternative readings of prominent scenario reports. Our findings suggest that scenario reports, in addition to anticipating possible futures, construct certain futures based on a systematic analysis of empirical data but also speculative interpretation. The results of these interpretative acts often appear elitist, stereotypical, and technocratic, often replicating dominant societal narratives rather than fostering substantive shifts in how the future is imagined. We therefore call for a more polyphonic representation of futures in scenario writing and foresight work that can produce more discontinuous and transformative images of the future. We understand polyphonic representations as coined by various independent, predominant as well as subaltern perspectives on the same issue at stake while being offered the same amount of space. Therefore, as we will indicate in our analysis, most of the reports referred to are rather monophonic and do not offer discuptive perspectives on the future of everyday life. As an avenue of methodological development, we propose a more nuanced and comprehensive perception of culture and social structures in scenario narrative writing. In addition, ethnographic methods could increase our understanding of how futures are collaboratively constructed and produced by different actors and their respective backgrounds and knowledge in scenario processes.

Authors: Sven Schimpf, Michael Lauster, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Markus John

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2026.103770

Abstract:

In the development of innovations over the past decades, data-driven methods have become commonplace. Alongside advantages in effectiveness and efficiency comes the danger of relying on data describing past rather than future developments which can result in a loss of imagination and creativity. In parallel, a growing awareness of the interface between innovation and science fiction can be observed in academia and among practitioners. This awareness is most often based on the hypothesis that taking inspiration from science fiction can create value in the development of innovations. Despite numerous case studies in the literature describing this interface, a major part of methods applied seem to have been chosen in an unstructured, almost random way. This study investigates the literature in search of science fiction-related methods able to support the development of innovations. With around 60.000 publications considered based on a high-level search, a refined search combined with a manual search led to 17 science fiction-related methods to support the development of innovations. Using a six-phase generic innovation process, the methods identified were mapped into the process based on semantic similarities between the objectives of each method and the objectives of innovation process phases. This mapping is understood as an overview and conceptualization offering a baseline for future academic research and guidance for practitioners on choosing the most appropriate science fiction-related methods for developing innovations.

Autoren: Laura Bechthold, Sabine Wiesmüller

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-46577-3_6

Abstact: 

Unsere Gesellschaft steht vor der großen Herausforderung, die digitale Transformation zum Wohle aller zu gestalten. Insbesondere künstliche Intelligenz (KI) wird dabei zunehmend zu einem der einflussreichsten Katalysatoren für den Wandel von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft im 21. Jahrhundert und zum Treiber der nächsten industriellen Revolution (Makridakis 2017). Schätzungen zufolge wird der Anteil von KI-basierten Erlösen an der Weltwirtschaft bis 2030 voraussichtlich 15,7 Billionen Dollar betragen, wobei 45 % der gesamten wirtschaftlichen Gewinne auf KI-gestützte Produkte entfallen dürften (PriceWaterhouseCoopers 2019). Dabei werden Faktoren wie der Zugang zu und die effektive Nutzung von Daten zu wichtigen Determinanten wirtschaftlichen Erfolges (Drexl 2016). Aufgrund der hohen Dynamik der technologischen Entwicklungen sind Unternehmen daher zunehmend gefordert, sich nicht nur an die Geschwindigkeit des Wettbewerbs anzupassen (Cave und ÓhÉigeartaigh 2019), sondern sich durch den Einsatz von KI im Idealfall einen Wettbewerbsvorteil zu schaffen (Wiesmüller 2023). Dabei geht es aber nicht nur um die schiere Anwendung der neuen Technologien, sondern um deren verantwortungsvollen Einsatz.

Autoren: Lisa A. Pace, Carmen Bruno, Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:http://dx.doi.org.thi.idm.oclc.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539

Abstract:

This paper contributes to integrating human-centred design approaches in foresight. We emphasize design thinking as an approach that incorporates user-centred concepts and artefacts, enabling the creation and visualization of potential futures and mediating the exploration of new perspectives and areas of intervention for innovation. However, there is limited discussion in the foresight literature on the meaningful application of design approaches. We focus on the persona method and its roles and applications in scenario building. To be meaningful in scenario building, personas need to appropriately integrate users’ future needs, expectations and behaviours that shape and in turn are shaped by contexts that are yet to be realised. Based on an analysis of published case studies, the paper underscores the role of personas in fostering creative imagination, enhancing scenario engagement, and prospective sensemaking beyond their application as a storytelling vehicle in scenarios. We link persona characteristics and design to their roles in scenario building, allowing design and foresight practitioners the flexibility to tailor the persona approach to different contexts and critically assess the underlying limitations. From this, we provide recommendations for incorporating personas in scenario building and conclude with suggestions for future research.•Personas are fictional characters that project future user needs and expectations.•When used with scenarios, personas foster creativity and sensemaking futures.•Tailoring the features, and roles of personas in scenario building.•Future research could address the mode and scope of personas application.

Authors: Jan Oliver Schwarz, Theresa Constanze Schropp, Bernhard Wach, Fabian Buder

Link:  http://dx.doi.org.thi.idm.oclc.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103548

Abstract:

In a large empirical investigation of 400 managers in large U.S. and European corporations, we shed light on the effects of internal strategic foresight activities for decision-making, asking whether and how firms’ internal foresight activities add value to their decision-making. Enabling and supporting strategy conversations is conceptualized here as a central activity of strategic foresight. Our empirical investigation demonstrates that internal foresight activities have a significant and positive effect on strategy conversations within a firm. Against the assumptions of previous research, however, we cannot confirm the positive influence of strategy conversations in general on challenging the status quo in a firm or the overall helpfulness of strategic foresight activities in the context of decision-making. Future research should delve deeper into organizational studies to gain a more nuanced understanding of the processes and factors influencing future-oriented decision-making, as well as identifying key enablers that facilitate these decisions.•Empirical investigation of 400 managers in large U.S. and European corporations.•Internal foresight activities have a significant and positive effect on strategic conversations within a firm.•Positive influence of strategic conversations in general on challenging the status quo in a firm cannot be confirmed.•Future research should aim to gain a more nuanced understanding of the processes and factors influencing future-oriented decision-making.

Authors: Elena Zehnder and Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103608

Abstract:

Although foresight has been credited with supporting organizations in dealing with the future, recent crises have highlighted the need to anticipate the future more effectively. Moreover, it has been argued that the future conceptualized in this context is not sufficiently complex. Under the label of future making, it has been proposed to investigate how actors within an organization interact with the future. The study explores how long-established family firms construct narratives of the future in practice because of their huge relevance in many economies and their long-term orientation. Therefore, we adopt a future making perspective that focuses on collaborative processes for shaping preferred futures. The research is based on empirical data collected via semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders in a family business. It concludes that the company’s future is strongly influenced by its traditional family identity, with the founding family playing a pivotal role in shaping that identity. The company's future making is informal, avoiding corporate foresight processes that are seen as inhibiting. Despite appearing unstructured, the family business unconsciously follows underlying theoretical models. However, it is emphasized that understanding their approach to future making is critical for family businesses, highlighting the need for further exploration of its implications.

Autor: Laura Bechthold

Link:  https://jfsdigital.org/rendering-new-futures-or-enshrining-pictures-of-the-past-the-double-edged-sword-of-using-ai-generated-imagery-for-anticipation/

Abstract: 

With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) a new creativity tool has emerged with the potential to tremendously influence our systems of knowledge production. AI-based text-to-image (TTI) systems enable individuals, irrespective of their artistic skills, to contribute to the creative part of anticipation and transform vague ideas into tangible artifacts. However, the efficacy of any new technological advancement does not only depend upon the technology, but also on its practitioners. Hence, it is important to reflect on how the co-creation between humans and AI may unfold. This essay explores the use of AI-generated imagery in participatory activities for anticipation. After a short technical introduction, it follows two main lines of argumentation. The first part discusses potential pitfalls of using AI-generated imagery. A data collection based on 480 AI-generated images shows how these pictures tend to reproduce dominant stereotypes and with that might enshrine existing archetypal worldviews – even if references to the future are included in the prompting process. The second part turns to the potentials of AI-generated imagery and builds on the experiences of two participatory formats in which TTI-systems have been used to (co-)create images of the future. Here, the results show how the use of such mediational tools may help participants gain clarity on their ideas, facilitate group discussions, and enable the combination of multiple ideas into joint visions. The final part addresses the emerging tension between potentials and pitfalls and closes with a set of recommendations for futures researchers, practitioners, and facilitators of participatory interventions.

Author: Alexander Schönmann

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-86893-1_68

Abstract:

The successful transition to sustainable and competitive automotive production necessitates the identification and implementation of radically new technologies. The implementation of innovations in manufacturing is a challenging process, as the maturity of technology and employee acceptance are critical factors for project success. A conceptual framework is designed based on a top-down and bottom-up research approach, considering manufacturing requirements and characteristics in order to derive implementation strategies. Assessment criteria are identified which consider technology as well as employee readiness for manufacturing changes. This is achieved by applying a questionnaire approach with guiding questions. The resulting conceptual Manufacturing Technology Implementation Framework (MTI) supports manufacturing companies in planning radical technological implementation projects, evaluating the current status, deriving open issues and developing promising implementation strategies.

Authors: Katharina Kleine, Alexander Schönmann und Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:  https://doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-2467https://doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-2467

Abstract:

The 19th Symposium on Foresight and Technology Planning brings together leading experts from science, industry, and politics to discuss current developments, innovative methods, and practical approaches in the field of strategic technology planning and futurology. The conference proceedings include contributions that address key topics such as technology foresight, sustainable innovation strategies, data-based scenario development, and disruptive technologies. In addition to theoretical insights, practical case studies are also presented, offering insights into the design of future-oriented technology and innovation processes. The volume is aimed at professionals interested in making informed decisions in a dynamic technological environment and provides a valuable resource for designing sustainable strategies.

Author: Jan Oliver Schwarz

In: Fitzner, M., Blümelhuber, C. & Düllo, T. (reds.). Er rockt nicht, er rollt: Starke Signale an Franz Liebl. Berlin: Logos Verlag, 52-58.

Author: Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-70324-3_7https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-70324-3_7

Abstract:

The title primarily indicates that a better understanding of the future is necessary before we can attempt to shape it. Given the openness and unpredictability of the future, it must be emphasised that we should be talking about different possible futures. It is crucial to note that statements about the future can only be made in the current context. Therefore, we should rather speak of present futures and, consequently, of present pasts.

In addition to discussing these assumptions, this article deals with two aspects that enable us to deal with the future in practice. First, historical ideas about the future, especially from science fiction novels or films, are considered. Second, the Futures Literacy approach developed by UNESCO is discussed. This approach focuses explicitly on how the present influences our ideas about the future.

Authors: Markus May, Jan Oliver Schwarz

In: In Seyfert, P. & Blumenthal, F. (reds.). Science Fiction und Labour Fiction: Zukunftsvorstellungen von Arbeit und Arbeitskämpfen. Bielefeld: transcript, 49-60.

Link:  https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839470671

Abstract:

It has always been the prerogative of literature to ask the question: What if? However, certain genres have extended this question to a greater extent when it comes to modelling concepts of how current technological, social and political trends will develop in the future. Science fiction in particular, as a whole genre, relies on the subtleties of testing various concepts of possible future worlds by playing through a multitude of scenarios based on conceivable developments of the present state of affairs in various areas of human activity. However, the impact of science fiction goes far beyond a purely hypothetical prediction of the future: there are a number of cases in which concepts or inventions presented in texts or films have inspired technical developments in reality. The interdisciplinary project FOREXSCIFI (Developing Foresight Based on Science Fiction) conceptualises science fiction literature as an archive of prospective, innovative ideas and thus as an interesting source for organisations seeking innovation. The central question for this topic is how to search for innovative and feasible ideas in science fiction literature. The aim of FOREXSCIFI is to analyse science fiction literature primarily using methods from the digital humanities. This primarily involves developing algorithmically detectable features of science fiction literature and testing suitable analysis tools with which forward-looking innovations and innovations can be found in large quantities in science fiction literature and researched further. Based on the methods and tools developed, the aim is to create a database of science fiction literature that can be used to search for innovative ideas. Based on the developed methods, tools and results, FOREXSCIFI aims to bring the innovative potential of science fiction closer to larger groups, thus contributing to the opening up of science to broader social integration. This text aims to describe the idea of FOREXSCIFI in more detail. We begin with a conceptualisation of science fiction literature and foresight, before developing initial ideas for this project. At present, this project is in the conceptualisation phase, with initial experiments being carried out as proof of concept, and the project is to be rolled out at a later date.

Authors: Schropp, Theresa, Jan Oliver Schwarz und Fabian Buder

Link: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178

Abstract:

Our study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID-19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness.

Authors: Konstantinos Konstantinidis, Quentin Ladetto, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Theresa Schropp, Philipp Schweiger

Link: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178

Abstract:

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and increasing global complexity, foresight and preparedness are vital for organizations to navigate uncertain futures effectively. This report, produced collaboratively by armasuisse Science and Technology and the Bavarian Foresight Institute, explores eleven key emerging technological trends—including data science, AI, immersive technologies, quantum technologies, and more—and their interactions with fourteen global megatrends, such as climate change, urbanization, and shifting health paradigms.

By leveraging a structured framework, the report provides detailed analyses of each trend and megatrend, identifying potential impacts, challenges, and opportunities. A novel "Scenario Game" is introduced as an interactive tool for leaders to engage with these insights, enabling strategic exploration of future scenarios and fostering foresight-thinking.

This comprehensive resource serves as a valuable guide for decision-makers across industries, offering both a deep understanding of technological trajectories and a practical methodology for addressing the complex interplay of global trends shaping the future.

Authors:  Felix von Held, Jan Oliver Schwarz

Abstract:

This book introduces a fresh perspective on future-focused leadership, blending adaptability with resilience to offer guidance during uncertain times. It goes beyond explaining the “what” of foresight and strategy by embedding them within a value-driven culture, the “how.” Drawing from extensive research and practical experience, Robust Leadership equips leaders with actionable exercises designed to refine and strengthen their leadership capabilities.

Authoren: Felix Boddenberg, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Peter Schmies

Link:http://dx.doi.org.thi.idm.oclc.org/10.6531/JFS.202403_28(3).0004

Abstract:

Visions of the future of the digital transformation in the fashion industry are formed within the framework of this paper and are ultimately investigated in greater detail from a colour management perspective. The scenario planning method is used for this purpose with the objective of outlining four plausible and internally consistent scenarios. The scenarios, formed with deviations from the classical steps, are investigated using an implications workshop. Thus, this paper shows to what extent it is possible to deviate from the classical approach of scenario planning in order to still obtain industry-relevant results in a subsequent implications workshop.

Authoren: Ulrike-Sabine Dörr, Gerhard Schönhofer, Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:  http://dx.doi.org.thi.idm.oclc.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00237-1 

Abstract:

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of many economies. In today's world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), SMEs face diverse challenges to survive and stay competitive. SMEs must prepare themselves for these challenges by practicing foresight. However, foresight, and especially corporate foresight, has been conceptualized and researched in the context of large corporations. Applying foresight in SMEs is therefore complicated by the question of how to implement foresight in the context of SMEs given their specific requirements and limitations. This article provides an overview on the literature on the application of foresight in SMEs is, along with a summary of the extent to which SMEs conduct foresight from an organizational and individual perspective. Besides offering a compendium on the state of foresight in SMEs, a research agenda is formulated, incorporating the idea of a toolbox tailored to SMEs based on existing approaches and prior works.

Authors: Christina Moser, Stefanie Wrobel und Alexander Schönmann

Link:  http://dx.doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-2163

Abstract:

Das 18. Symposium für Vorausschau und Technologieplanung bringt führende Expert:innen aus Wissenschaft, Industrie und Politik zusammen, um aktuelle Entwicklungen, innovative Methoden und praktische Ansätze im Bereich der strategischen Technologieplanung und Zukunftsforschung zu diskutieren. Der Tagungsband umfasst Beiträge, die zentrale Themen wie Technologievorausschau, nachhaltige Innovationsstrategien, datenbasierte Szenarioentwicklung und disruptive Technologien behandeln. Neben theoretischen Erkenntnissen werden auch praxisnahe Fallstudien vorgestellt, die Einblicke in die Gestaltung zukunftsorientierter Technologie- und Innovationsprozesse bieten. Der Band richtet sich an Fachleute, die daran interessiert sind, fundierte Entscheidungen in einem dynamischen technologischen Umfeld zu treffen, und bietet eine wertvolle Ressource für die Gestaltung zukunftsfähiger Strategien.

Authors: Wach Bernhard, Jan Oliver Schwarz and Felix von Held

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.195

Abstract:

Corporate foresight (CF) can be considered a future-oriented capability that incorporates perceiving and prospecting. Extant CF-related studies tackle the CF−innovation relationship but do not provide details on how CF relates to innovation climate. As we assume that the innovation climate of companies is a relevant antecedent to innovation, we conduct a quantitative empirical study with 147 upper-tier managers to investigate how CF and the respective training of managers relate to a corporate's innovation climate. Results show that strong perceiving and prospecting positively influence the innovation climate, whereby prospecting is of particular importance. Further, we find that training managers in future-oriented capabilities is only under certain circumstances (i.e., low prospecting) beneficial to the innovation climate in companies.

Autoren: Philipp Köbe and Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-43860-9_35

Abstract:

Die Gesundheit der Bevölkerung ist ein entscheidender Faktor für den Wohlstand und das Wohlergehen der Menschen. Ein schlechter Gesundheitszustand kann zu Produktivitätseinbußen, Armut und vorzeitigem Tod führen, wobei die COVID-19-Pandemie die Anfälligkeit der Bevölkerungsgesundheit auf globaler Ebene verdeutlichte. Selbstlernende Algorithmen haben das Potenzial, die Gesundheit der Bevölkerung nachhaltig zu verbessern und einen Paradigmenwechsel im Gesundheitswesen herbeizuführen. Es wird eine intuitive Logik verwendet, um Zukunftsszenarien zu erstellen, um sich den Auswirkungen des Einsatzes von Superintelligenzen anzunähern. Diese Szenarien werden entweder als gesundheitsfördernd oder gesundheitsschädigend eingestuft, und Superintelligenz wird entweder als vorherrschend oder nicht vorherrschend betrachtet. Für jedes Szenario werden strategische Implikationen aufgezeigt, die der Politik im Umgang mit Superintelligenz als Richtschnur dienen können. Zur Veranschaulichung der Szenarien werden real existierende Use Cases verwendet. Dadurch wird ein Transfer möglicher Chancen und Risiken verdeutlicht, der den Handlungsraum für die Szenarien vorgeben kann.

Author: Laura Bechthold

Link:  https://doi.org/10.15358/9783800671984-136

Abstract:

In unserer Welt, die sich in einem atemberaubenden Tempo entwickelt, wird die Fähigkeit, Zukunftsszenarien zu entwickeln und Weichenstellungen für kommende Herausforderungen vorzunehmen, immer entscheidender. Unternehmen, Organisationen und Individuen stehen vor der großen Herausforderung, Zukunftsstrategien zu entwickeln, die sie auf den Weg des Erfolgs und der Nachhaltigkeit führen. Um einen Einblick in dieses spannende Feld zu gewinnen, haben wir uns mit Prof. Dr. Laura Bechthold getroffen, einer renommierten Zukunftsforscherin und Expertin für die Entwicklung strategischer Visionen.

Autor: Melanie Martini, Frank Tietze, Marcus John, Leonidas Aristodemou and Sven Schimpf

Link: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.111428

Abstract: 

Disruptive innovations, as opposed to sustaining innovations, bring change to customers, markets, industries. This change is often quite sudden and drastic. Thus, the early identification of disruptive technologies can be crucial for managers and policy makers alike. In this work we propose a method to support the early identification of disruptive innovations. To do so we conceptualize a 5-phase pathway framework for disruptive innovation, then propose how to operationalize its phases using patent data. We combined the underlying theory by Christensen with different patent indicators from literature to develop an early warning system for disruptive innovations based on the underlying disruptive technologies. Additionally, we introduce the concept of patent zero and provide a first analysis.

Authors: Alireza Dadashi, Alexander Schönmann, Melanie Martini and Marcus John

Link:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-43860-9_12

Abstract: 

Dieser Beitrag zeigt das Thema der Reifegradbewertung neuer Technologien im Allgemeinen sowie im Kontext des Gesundheitswesens im Speziellen. Grundlage hierfür bildet eine bibliometrische Analyse, welche zum Ziel hat, das Verständnis hinsichtlich verschiedener Kontexte, Objekte, Perspektiven sowie Modelle und Methoden zur Reifegradbestimmung von Technologien zu erhöhen, als auch deren Bedeutung für das Gesundheitswesen aufzuzeigen. Hierzu werden, ausgehend von der Begriffsklärung und Erarbeitung einer Suchstrategie, die Entwicklung der Publikationsdynamik sowie der wissenschaftlichen Etablierung des Forschungsfeldes zur Reifegradbewertung untersucht. Anschließend werden zentrale Methoden zur Reifegrad-Bestimmung vorgestellt, bevor ein spezifischer Blick auf die aktuelle Forschungslandschaft zur Technologiereife im Gesundheitswesen gegeben wird. Dabei wird vor allem deutlich, dass die Faktoren Mensch und Digitalisierung bei der Reifegradbewertung zunehmend an Relevanz gewinnen und verstärkt berücksichtigt werden.

Author: Jan Oliver Schwarz, Daniel F. Oriesek

Link:  https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-13701-3.00474-6

Abstract: 

Business wargaming allows organizations to simulate market dynamics, anticipate competitor actions, and develop robust strategies. The approach׳s effectiveness stems from its ability to immerse participants in realistic scenarios, fostering collaborative sensemaking and strategic thinking. By simulating competitive and market environments, business wargaming helps organizations navigate uncertainties and dynamic landscapes. This methodology draws on principles of traditional wargaming, with historical roots dating back to ancient military practices. The modern application in business contexts is more recent, evolving to address the complexities of strategic management in contemporary industries.

Authors: Koebe, Philipp, Tobias Schillings und Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005

Abstract:

Population health is a crucial determinant of human prosperity and well-being. Poor health can lead to reduced productivity, poverty, and premature death, with the COVID-19 pandemic underscoring the vulnerability of population health on a global scale. Self-learning algorithms have the potential to improve population health in a sustainable way and bring a paradigm shift to healthcare. We utilize intuitive logic to generate future scenarios in order to address the research question. These scenarios are categorized as either health-promoting or health-damaging, and superintelligence is considered either dominating or nondominating. We provide strategic implications for each scenario, which can guide policy action in dealing with superintelligence.

Authors: Krüger, Clemens, Laura Bechthold und Reinhard Prügl

Link:https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800889248.00026

Abstract:

Entrepreneurs face seemingly conflicting goals in a rapidly changing and complex world. Especially family businesses are prone to such paradoxical tensions due to the interconnectedness of the family and the firm. Despite their relevance in entrepreneurial business practice, current research lacks methods to examine individual behavior in the management of paradoxes. We introduce serious games as a method capable of simulating context-rich and immersive environments to understand entrepreneurial decision-making in paradoxical situations. In an exploratory study, we quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed the behavior of 181 players in a self-programmed serious game with a focus on decision-making in a family firm. With this initial implementation of a serious game, we show the method's potential for advancing (family) entrepreneurship research and behavioral management theories. We propose a new research agenda that harnesses context-rich games for behavioral analyses, entrepreneurship education, and the development of coping strategies for the management of paradoxes.

Authors: Schönmann, Alexander, Lukas Lodes und Alexander Schiendorfer

Link: https://doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-1821

Abstract:

The importance of dealing with technology forecasts and forward studies in terms of content for a sound research and innovation policy has increased in view of the increasing complexity of innovation processes over the last few years. National, cross-thematic technology projections and forward studies croffit insights into the assessments and expectations of governments regarding emerging (technology) development and, in some cases, into strategic planning in the respective national context.

Knowledge of thematic priorities in international forward studies can help German decision-makers identify important issues for science and technology decisions. Thus, own science and technology strategies can be compared with those of other countries and strengths, weaknesses and potential for optimization can be identified. It is also possible to better assess which investments in research and development can bring great benefits to society and the economy.

This article provides a statistical overview of international technology forecasts and future studies in the 2016-2022 observation period and evaluates thematically. The focus is on identifying key topics of individual countries and regions of the world, which are statistically identified using so-called national thematic fingerprints.

The aim is a comparative overview of the thematic focuses of currently important technology perspectives from abroad, which meets the need of German decision-makers for substantial evaluations of international technology forecasts.

Author: Schönhofer, Gerhard

Link: https://sammlung.volkskundemuseum.at/bibliothek/content/zoom/171462

Authors: Schwarz, Jan Oliver, Bernhard Wach und René Rohrbeck

Link:doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137

Abstract:

Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common “language” and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success.

Autoren: Schwarz, Jan Oliver

Link:https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735

Abstract:

Organisations today are being challenged to make sense of changes in environments that, now more than ever, are described as VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous). They are also being driven to understand how the future will evolve and what impact it will have not only on the organisations themselves but also on industries and societies. In recent decades a field has emerged to support organisations in addressing these challenges: strategic foresight.

This book is a comprehensive introduction to strategic foresight. It presents a history of the field and explains the main principles in thinking about the future. The book describes how organisations can apply strategic foresight and explains how it relates to other fields such as strategy, innovation, and leadership, highlighting the relevance of strategic foresight not only for organisations but also for individuals, particularly managers and leaders. Grounded in the theoretical foundations of strategic foresight, the book reflects the latest academic research and explores practical applications in different contexts. It draws on more than two decades of experience that the author has in the field as a researcher and as a consultant in the corporate context.

This is essential reading for managers and leaders of public and private organisations who want to establish strategic foresight practices, as well as students of foresight and managers in the fields of innovation, research & development, and marketing.

Authors: Schönhofer, Gerhard

Link:https://www.transcript-verlag.de/978-3-8376-6061-6/ermaechtigung-durch-sichtbarkeit/

Abstract:

In the context of participatory film projects for young people with refugee experience, visibility is often equated with empowerment. Gerhard Schönhofer questions this logic by ethnographically describing processes of making visible, as they occur in workshop formats. The proximity to the research field not only creates a precise picture of the self-image, but also of the demands of the project managers, who are sometimes in tension with the motivations of the participating young people.

Authors: Schwarz, Jan Oliver und Bernhard Wach

Link:https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879

Abstract:

It has been argued that cultural products (e.g., novels or movies) can be used to develop foresight or prototypes. The rationale is that cultural products not only reflect changes in the business environment but also contribute to these changes by diffusion. Therefore, cultural products are arguably valuable. However, compared to other design thinking tools such as ethnographic research, interviews or focus groups, cultural products are less prevalent. This article, which is based on an empirical study of 302 design thinkers from 2018, explores the extent to which cultural products are used in design thinking projects. Despite a lower prevalence than other design thinking tools, we find support that cultural products are positively related to the success of design thinking projects. We conclude that although cultural products are used less than other approaches, they have a significant impact. We therefore emphasize the future potential of using cultural products in design thinking.